2nd October 2023 > > Uptober!

tl;dr

A bit of a rant perhaps, but then we get to the juicy stuff.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Uptober has got off to a good start. Long may it last.

We expect nine futures ETH ETFs to be trading today, further undermining the SEC’s credibility with respect to a spot BTC ETF.

It is also very likely that the UK regulator will refuse to allow UK investors to buy any of these ETFs though the US has the strictest securities laws in the world. If only we were an independent nation, free to forge our way in the world, and be allowed to make our own decisions.

Oh well, that parallel universe of prosperity and growth just ain’t gonna happen to us.

Occasional Series – Jeremy Hunt

Hunt (not his real name, but the CCC is a family friendly publication) has been quoted as saying “We can’t let taxes rise forever”, and that he has a plan.

Regardless of whether you believe taxes should be higher or lower than they are now (and do not ask me, for I will not share my opinion on that topic), why is it that some politicians think that offering a plan, and presumably action, in the indeterminate future, is preferable to just doing it now?

Occasional Series – Watford F.C.

During our (regrettably) short sojourn in the Premiership, I sometimes struggled to have a companion to take my second season ticket. Now we are in the Championship, fellow travellers are even more scarce.

Following Saturday's capitulation, what are the chances that in League One (for we are surely going down) I spend a whole season travelling to Vicarage Road on my own?

Stevie G, help me out here. When it’s your team, will you come to watch the Os at the Vic with me?

Occasional Series – Watford F.C. part 2

Arriving at Euston yesterday I was disturbed to see very few people. Then I noticed most of the shops on the concourse were shut too. This is the zombie apocalypse was my first thought. But no. It was worse than that.

Another train strike.

When I had a real job – admittedly some time ago now – I knew that if I refused to work, I would be fired. The same was true of anyone who worked for me.

There are plenty of people who get paid an awful lot less than train drivers, without equivalent job security, and without the big fat pension, who were denied a day’s work because of the strike.

…

When exactly did not doing your actual job when you are a higher rate taxpayer become a thing?

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – spot BTC ETF

The SEC’s self-imposed deadline of responding to its public consultation looms large on 6th October. Will this be the day when the SEC approves a raft of spot BTC ETFs?

Putting Grayscale to one side (it wants to change from a Trust to an ETF so no net new demand there) there are currently ten other applications sitting on Gary Gensler’s desk from the likes of Blackrock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, Wisdom Tree, Van Eck, Invesco, and others. I shouldn’t need to repeat this, but the only reason these titans of the investment world have put in applications is because they believe there is client demand.

A quick totting up of the AUM of this cohort is over $15 TRILLION, dominated of course by the big three. Each 1% of AUM that gets allocated to BTC adds $150bn to the market cap of BTC, equivalent to $7k on the price.

We can argue all day long about how much we can expect to be allocated to BTC but there is little point in doing so. Just bear in mind that if 4% of AUM flows into spot BTC ETFs that will double the price to $56k.