2nd May 2025 > > Tariffs, two scams, and the retail crypto stampede.

tl;dr

Two different scams that work in the same way, though one is a touch more obvious than the other. The crypto stampede from retail has hardly even begun.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Bloomberg reports that the US and China are in talks over trade, raising the prospect of an early end to Trump’s Tariff Wars. The popular press has long been pushing the narrative that the tariffs have caused untold damage to stocks and bonds, with the markets punishing investors for Trump’s foolishness. It’s instructive to compare the market snap the day of the US election with today’s numbers:

Wall Street – a 750-point sell-off, a mere 1.8% which is just normal volatility.

UST 10 year – yields are lower by 6bps which is positive.

BTC – a tasty 41% gain totalling $28k on pre-Trump price of $68,900.

That doesn’t look to me like the market carnage that has been reported by all media outlets in recent times.

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Don’t get me wrong. Trump’s Tariff Wars certainly run the risk of severely curtailing global trade making us all less wealthy. The alternative scenario – that the tariffs are swiftly removed in exchange for removing non-tariff barriers to trade – would be a huge win for everyone. It’s a high-risk game, and we do not yet know the outcome. But even those who inadvertently (or deliberately) shudder at the mere mention of Trump’s name must surely want him to be successful on this narrow point alone.

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Perpetual futures funding rates are heavily skewed negative, raising the delightful potential for a sharp short squeeze higher.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Scam alert one

But if I am being honest, if you fall for this one, you kinda deserve what you get.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Scam alert two

Some Ledger users whose personal details were leaked online are receiving physical letters asking the recipient to validate their wallets. This scam is a more sophisticated version of the one above.

The validation process asks for the seed phrase in two different ways:

“How do I validate my wallet?

TO validate your wallet, simply scan the QR code provided in the notification and follow the

on-screen instructions to securely enter your recovery phrase.

QR doesn't work? Please visit our validation platform manually by visiting this link:

ledger-compliance.com”

To ease your concerns, the letter continues:

“Is it safe to enter my recovery phrase?

Yes, wallet validation is conducted through a secure channel. Always ensure you are entering

your recovery phrase through the official Ledger platform by scanning the QR code provided.

How can I confirm my wallet has been successfully validated?

 After completing the validation process, you will receive a confirmation message indicating

successful verification. You may also check your wallet settings for updated validation status.

For your security, never share your recoveIY (sic) phrase with anyone outside of the ofticial (sic) Ledger validation platform.”

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Remember – the only people who ever ask for your seed phrase or private keys are feral scammers.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Retail crypto adoption hasn’t yet started

An interesting piece from the Milk Road (https://themilkroad.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=o5CmCFhBAK) suggests that the oft-quoted phrase “you are not yet late to BTC” does have some legs.

Tephra Digital has circulated this graphic, detailing which of the “US Wealth Platforms”, more commonly known as Wirehouses, allow unrestricted access to spot BTC ETFs, restricted access to spot BTC ETFs, and the laggards who cling to an outdated and redundant view of the world:

Let’s look at some of the highlights of this graphic.

In total, this population of Wirehouses has $50 TRILLION worth of investments custodied for their retail clients. Of that total, 60% or $30 TRILLION still have no access or restricted access to the spot BTC ETFs.

Total AUM of the spot BTC ETFs is now around $115bn, which is a meagre 0.6% of the total unrestricted funds.

Now we can add two key assumptions, which are you at liberty to disagree with:

i) Even dinosaurs like Vanguard will one day (and soon) change their minds.

ii) 3%-5% of all investment monies will flow into cryptos, mostly BTC via the spot ETFs.

If these two assumptions hold true (and we will see that happen within three years at most) the additional monies flowing into the spot BTC ETFs range from $1.7 TRILLION to $2.7 TRILLION, from this one source alone.

BTC’s current market cap is just over $2  TRILLION. I leave it to you to ponder where the price of BTC lands, once this pool of investment monies really starts to get to work.