22nd November 2023 > > CEX & happy days.

tl;dr

Zhao is going to jail. Kraken wants to form a cartel. A very pleasant surprise from an unexpected source.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

This day last year, the CCC reported BTC at $15,700, the lowest print recorded in the CCC of the last crypto winter. December is traditionally one of the more volatile months for BTC, probably because of the stock market’s expectation of the Santa Claus rally, which can disappoint.

Cryptos currently have a low to non-existent correlation to stocks so I am hopeful that price action will focus on spot BTC ETFs (an underestimated impact) and the halving (an overestimated impact). With both events likely before April is out, 2024 is going to get interesting.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Binance update

Just yesterday the CCC opined that:

“It would be in everyone’s best interest if the deal was struck, and Zhao was no longer involved in Binance.”

Zhao has stepped down as CEO and will plead guilty to violating anti-money laundering laws according to the WSJ with a short 18-month prison sentence. When the CCC speaks, the world listens …

This is good news for the collapse of Binance would have been taken terribly hard by the markets.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Kraken update

In response to the SEC’s decision to take Kraken to court as reported yesterday in the CCC, co-founder and CEO Jesse Powell has vowed to fight the SEC in the courts, whilst also advising other crypto companies to leave the U.S.

This is the equivalent of the vastly expensive lobbying by large companies across all industries in favour of sovereign governments enacting ever more onerous legislation and regulation. Regulation that is ostensibly in the cause of “customer interests” but is designed to prevent potential disruptors from gaining even the smallest foothold. Banking, technology, energy, and food are the most egregious examples of this wealth destruction in action (looking at you, CAP). Probably 75% or more of regulation is no more than competition killers, making us all so much poorer than we would otherwise be.

Powell is obviously anti-competition, so let’s try it a second time.

It would be in everyone’s best interest if the deal was struck, and Powell was no longer involved in Kraken.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Well, well, well, that’s a turnup for the books

h/t for the CCC’s TA in residence Larry for this nugget.

A major news publication has cast doubt and aspersions on the justification for CBDCs.

The report rightly identifies that a major motivation for CBDCs is to get around U.S. sanctions. This is one of the reasons why China and Russia are so keen on this tool of coercion and control. With the added advantage – from their perspective – that it is a tool of coercion and control.

Amongst more enlightened nations, Switzerland and Slovakia have legislated against CBDCs, and the US cannot introduce one without passing legislation allowing it to issue a CBDC, legislation which has a zero chance of passing both Houses even if someone was foolish enough to bring a bill forward.

Of the other civilised nations in the world:

“After doing their homework, central bankers from Sweden and Denmark to Japan have expressed scepticism. Sweden’s Riksbank released a 900-page report in March arguing that the case for a cbdc (sic) was weak, citing the nation’s already advanced payment system.”

The conclusion is a cheering one:

“Expect the fomo (sic) around cbdcs (sic) to continue to fade.

…

But you want to know the exciting news? Prepare to be shocked.

This piece was published by The Economist, one of the more natural bedfellows for supporters of CBDCs.