tl;dr
A price prediction which perhaps warms the cockles of your heart. Greek bureaucrats are some of the smartest in the world. The US government is not selling BTC, despite naysayers’ insistence to the contrary.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
The spike down close to $80k was not, to my mind, a correction – just the usual volatility we see as bull markets fire up.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – A delightful stab at forecasting the future price of BTC
My attention has been drawn to this price range forecast by VanEck issued in January this year:
It is a bit annoying having to wait until I am 83 for my own private jet and superyacht, but better late than never, I guess.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Greece
Greece’s Ministry of National Economy and Finance is clearly staffed with some very smart people. This week a draft bill was published which included provisions relating to taxes for crypto investors. It is some years since I last read any legal documents in Greek, but I believe that the key provisions are as follows:
i) 10% rate for capital gains tax.
ii) Annual exemption of EUR 500.
iii) 10% rate on income from lending, liquidity provision, and staking.
iv) A 12-month window for owning up to undeclared crypto gains with no penalty for doing so.
And most thrillingly of all, any crypto-to-crypto swaps are excluded – the exchange back into fiat is the taxable event.
A consultation period will run until 22nd October with a vote planned for parliament in November.
Cue a stampede of wealthy crypto investors heading to live on the Greek islands, fattening the tax base.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The US stash of BTC
There was much panic during the week when reports emerged that the US government had deposited BTC and WBTC into Coinbase Prime:
The usual suspects were out in force spreading FUD across social media. Perhaps we need to be reminded that Executive Order 14233, “Establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile”, prevents the government from selling BTC that is in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The same restriction does not apply to other crypto assets, but I think we can safely assume it extends to wBTC too.
The order also required that the Treasury Secretary set up an office to administer the custodial accounts holding the reserve’s BTC.
Coinbase Prime is the world’s largest custodian of BTC held by institutions on their own balance sheet and holds most of the assets backing the spot crypto ETFs. It is hardly a stretch of the imagination to suppose that the US government would likely choose Coinbase Prime to custody its BTC reserve rather than hold private keys with all the attendant security risks.
The dip to $80k following this news is being partly reversed. Speculators will always get hurt. Investors stay strong and reap the rewards of doing so.